Palin's Drops in Popularity with Republicans - In Charlie Sheen, Al Sharpton and Pat Buchanan Territory (Free Flight New Media)

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March 18, 2011

Palin's Drops in Popularity with Republicans - In Charlie Sheen, Al Sharpton and Pat Buchanan Territory

Palin’s Popularity Declines Among Republicans

By NATE SILVER

On Thursday, a poll was released asking voters whether they’d rather elect Sarah Palin or … the actor Charlie Sheen.

Although the polling firm in question, Public Policy Polling, has a pretty good track record (the firm conducts polling for Democratic candidates and for Daily Kos in addition to surveys it puts out under its own name), asking a question like this one amounts to a gimmick. How many of their respondents took the question literally, much less seriously?

The punchline, I suppose, is that 29 percent of people punched the button for Mr. Sheen, instead of for Ms. Palin. But 24 percent also selected Mr. Sheen when he was tested against Barack Obama.

Depending on how much overlap there was between the two groups, that may mean that at least half of the respondents were willing to support Mr. Sheen against one of these two candidates. Perhaps that is troubling if you take the result literally — but in a case like this one, it may reflect as much on the pollster as it does the people they’re getting on the phone.

That notwithstanding, there is some evidence that Ms. Palin’s popularity is slipping further. And the decline seems to be concentrated among one subgroup: Republicans.

The following table provides a list of pollsters that have tested Ms. Palin’s favorability numbers both at some point in 2011 as well as late last year. All six of the pollsters have shown Ms. Palin’s favorability numbers declining, and all but one have show her unfavorable numbers increasing.

The magnitude of the decline is not huge — her favorable ratings have dropped by 2 or 3 points on average since late last year, while her unfavorables have increased by 3 or 4 points — although it is probably statistically significant given that, collectively, these polling organizations surveyed thousands of people.

Perhaps more importantly, Ms. Palin was not the sort of candidate who could afford to lose any popularity. Her ratings are now in the range of Al Sharpton and Pat Buchanan in the years before they ran for president, rather than those who were considered viable candidates.